CFB - Florida at Kentucky (7:00 PM ET – ESPN2)

Florida and Kentucky, the teams in this week’s premiere SEC showdown

2007-10-19

Florida and Kentucky, the teams in this week’s premiere SEC showdown, share one common trait. They both last played formerly top-ranked LSU. The results were different and have the teams going in opposite directions heading into their Saturday night showdown. The Gators are a 7-point road favorite.

The reason for the formerly descriptive is of course the Wildcats’ upset last week in triple-overtime. Now, Florida, coming off a bye week, looks to turn the tables and derail the SEC title hopes of the Wildcats, a team they’ve beaten 20 straight times. The average margin in the L15 meetings has been 43-17. HC Urban Meyer’s teams are 12-2 ATS off bye week, but at Florida, he is 0-8 ATS as road chalk. Kentucky & QB Andre Woodson are on a 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS run as an underdog.

After being saddled with two losses in a row for the first time since 2004, Urban Meyer will seek to avoid a third heading to Lexington. Florida wants another shot at LSU which would have to take place in conference championship contest. "We can still make it to Atlanta and win the SEC championship. We have to still believe in each other and in the coaches and fight the rest of the season." said QB Tim Tebow. Florida is loaded with talent; unfortunately this also includes inexperience which has shown up in both losses. To make stretch run Meyer will have to coach them up in a hurry. The offense is too dependent on Tebow to be awesome every game. While Tebow is far better watching him for entire games then anticipated, football is a team sport and he needs help.

Kentucky will have its third challenging game against a SEC beast, after playing defensive stalwarts South Carolina and LSU. These are Sisyphean times for the Wildcats who were full of vigor early in the season. This program in unaccustomed to success on a higher level and it has shown the last couple of weeks. The frustration of playing teams truly better, yet not overbearing like in the past has Kentucky lacking poise when it needs it most. With a run of the mill defense, Rich Brooks team needs to play to its strength. Run the ball and have Andre Woodson control the pigskin that leads to point production.

Key Trend – Kentucky has lost five consecutive games to Florida and covered the spread each time.

To understand what a Kentucky win would mean against Florida, take a trip in the time machine back to 1986, this was the last time they beat the Gators. (20 games) The Wildcats are capable if they can muster the emotional edge and play with the poise that was lacking against South Carolina. The Gators are 3-13-1 ATS as road favorites the last 17 trips.

Prediction – Kentucky by 2

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