CFB: Papa Johns Bowl - CONNECTICUT vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (2:00 PM ET, ESPN)

The Papa Johns Bowl matches the SEC and the Big East as Connecticut takes on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 5-point favorites after opening at -4.5, thanks to 71% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com going their way. The Huskies have been nearly aut

2010-01-04

The Papa Johns Bowl matches the SEC and the Big East as Connecticut takes on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 5-point favorites after opening at -4.5, thanks to 71% of the betting action at Sportsbook.com going their way. The Huskies have been nearly automatic though for bettors this season, and it would be crazy to think they won’t be motivated to compete here.

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 against the number, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies in the Papa John’s Bowl will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn plays as a 5-point underdog to South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country, loaded with eight eventual bowl teams. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS in those games. Strangely, this is just the fourth time this season that head coach Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 SU and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS prior.

If you believe in the old saying “a trend is your friend,” then there’s only one way to go here. UConn was a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in 2009. Picked to finished near the bottom of the Big East standings, head coach Randy Edsall’s crew overachieved on its way to a third consecutive bowl game. Spurrier and South Carolina continued their recent trend of fading down the stretch, losing four of their last six to ruin a 5-1 start. In fact, the Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS on the road in the second half of the season over the last three years, including an average loss of 37-17. There really isn’t a stand-out player of note on either of these teams and statistically, both are ordinary on both sides of the ball. Factoring all that in, the best play is to follow the trend and take the points.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
Randy Edsall is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) as an underdog as the coach of CONNECTICUT. The average score was CONNECTICUT 19.9, OPPONENT 30.4 - (Rating = 1*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CONNECTICUT) - in major bowl games (played in January), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (58-24 since 1992.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)

PAPA JOHN'S BOWL Series Trend: The Big East has won all three previous games of the Papa John’s Bowl series, being favored each time by at least 5.5-points. The ATS ledger is split 1-1-1. All three previous games went UNDER the total. This will be the first time that the game is played in January and the first time that the Big East is the underdog.

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