CFB: Trio of key games highlights Big Ten football Saturday

There have been a lot of surprises in the Big Ten this season as pre-season favorites Ohio State and Wisconsin have already suffered setbacks.

2008-10-10

There have been a lot of surprises in the Big Ten this season as pre-season favorites Ohio State and Wisconsin have already suffered setbacks. Northwestern, Michigan State, and Penn State have picked up the slack. All of the teams mentioned will be in action on Saturday in three different games. Here is a brief look at those contests with some key betting information you’ll want to consider.

Penn State (-6, Total = 47) vs. Wisconsin
Veteran players are usually the best recipe for success a football program. The Penn State roster is littered with seniors, who have been through it all in their time at State College and have the mental makeup to succeed even when the road starts to get bumpy. After last week’s win at Purdue, the stakes and the opposition become more difficult at Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are only 5-13 ATS the last three seasons in the Big 10 and will depend on senior signal caller Daryll Clark to lead them. Clark has been masterful in throwing short and deep to receivers who have been around the program for years. Evan Royster has stepped forward as a running back in the Penn State tradition, quick to the hole, powerful, with great balance.

Wisconsin’s “Murder’s Row” Big 10 schedule continues off Michigan and Ohio State. For the second week in a row, the Badgers couldn’t hold fourth quarter lead. Wisconsin’s offense becomes stagnant in the red zone unless they find tight ends Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham. Teams have put eight men in the box, daring Allan Evridge to throw to run of the mill wide receivers and gang up on running back P.J. Hill. When the tight ends are healthy, this gives offense several more options to score touchdowns instead of settling for field goal attempts. The Wisco offensive line is massive and not especially friendly and will try to control the line of scrimmage since they are 19-7 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt.

This is a second prime time telecast for Wisconsin and the crowd will surely to juiced (literally). The Badgers are 8-5 and 7-4 ATS all-time vs. Penn State, with the home team perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS in recent get-togethers. The favorite in this confrontation has covered five in a row and seven of nine. Points have been scarce when these two meet, with average total being 37.
* StatFox Prediction: Play On Wisconsin

Michigan State (-1.5, Total = 46.5) @ Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 for the first time in 46 years and looks to make it six straight hosting Michigan State. The Wildcats defense has surrendered only 12.5 PPG and they are 18-11 ATS as a Big 10 home underdog. Northwestern has covered last four meetings with the Spartans. Michigan State has a crushing ground attack led by Javon Ringer, as they are averaging better than 184 YPG. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or higher. The underdog has covered six in a row, with the visiting team 8-3 against the spread since 1993. Spartans are 5-1 ATS on Big 10 road.
* StatFox Forecaster says: Northwestern 22, Michigan State 20

Purdue @ Ohio State (-18, Total = 45)
It’s offense vs. defense in the Big 10 matchup. QB Curtis Painter triggers a potent Purdue attack; with Kory Sheets carrying the pigskin. The Boilermakers have really been wretched on the conference road underdog with 4-13-1 ATS record. In general, Purdue has not performed off a loss, posting 5-16 ATS mark. Ohio State just has to keep working as coach Jim Tressel stated, but backers not impressed with 1-4 ATS start this season. The home team is 7-2 vs. the line and the favorite is 8-1 ATS when the Buckeyes and the Boilers collide. Purdue has lost 15 consecutive contests to ranked teams (2-11-2 ATS).
* StatFox Power Rating says Ohio State by 15

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