CFB: Utah at New Mexico (9:30 PM ET, The Mountain)

Utah has quietly stayed in the picture to crash the BCS party this season and has done it with the same things that got them to the Fiesta Bowl several years back under Urban Meyer

2008-11-04

Utah has quietly stayed in the picture to crash the BCS party this season and has done it with the same things that got them to the Fiesta Bowl several years back under Urban Meyer, namely a balanced spread attacking offense, and a defense built on stuffing the run. Saturday they’ll face upset minded New Mexico in Albuquerque.

Only one team has been able to run the ball with any success on Utah this season, that being Wyoming in a 40-7 Utes’ win. Meanwhile, in New Mexico’s four wins, it has run for 313.5 YPG, in its five losses just 148 YPG. Considering that Utah is allowing only 86 YPG and 2.7 YPR, which number do you think the Lobos will be closer to on Saturday? Exactly, and without a passing game to pick up the slack, New Mexico won’t stand a chance. Utah enjoyed a bye last weekend and is 23-10 coming off the bye. This just looks like a great spot for them.

After a week to reenergize, 8-0 (4-3 ATS) Utah heads for the finish line with four games to play, three that fall into the category of extremely challenging. The first one could prove to be the most deadly, being on the road in a hostile environment. The Utes have given a couple of sparkling efforts in beating mediocre Wyoming 40-7 and Colorado State 49-16. Coach Kyle Whittingham especially enjoyed the Rams rout. "It was our cleanest performance as an offense this season," Whittingham told the Deseret Morning News. "It was our most consistent performance of the season. We were not as dominant on special teams as I would've liked, so there are things we have to work on." Quarterback Brian Johnson continues to make wise choices instead of forcing the action for a team that is averaging 405.6 yards per game. The only worrisome aspect is the momentum could be halted with the bye and playing on the road. History doesn’t lead to that conclusion with the Utes 12-3 SU and ATS with time off.

New Mexico (4-5, 5-4 ATS) is one of only two teams in the FBS without a bye week in 2008, however did pick up an extra couple of days of preparation having faced Air Force last Thursday. The Lobos have lost to the other Mountain West front-runners TCU and BYU by a combined 47-6. What gives them hope in this spot is they have won three straight at University Stadium, including knocking off Arizona from the Pac-10. The offensive line has come together after starting out as a very inexperienced group. In their last five contests, New Mexico has averaged 236.8 yards per game on the ground, with Rodney Ferguson the main man and they are 11-3 ATS after one or more losses over the last three seasons.

Utah will run right at New Mexico’s 4-2-5 defensive alignment and see how they hold up. QB Johnson will face heavy pressure, but has the receivers that can burn New Mexico and they are 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 MWC matchups. The Lobos offensive is limited, thus can not afford to make mistakes. New Mexico has to run the football and cannot turn it over. In their four wins, they've committed a total of three turnovers .In their five losses, the Lobos had 17 giveaways. With young quarterbacks, UNM just isn't good enough on offense to overcome turnovers. The defense is going go have to come to play also, after getting out-played by Air Fore in allowing 227 yards on the ground and has not covered the spread in last six outings after surrendering 200 or more yards on the ground.

This is already the Lobos last home game this season and they are 13-7 ATS in home finales. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in last 11 matchups and Utah is only 2-6 against the spread, including be upset outright on four different occasions.

StatFox Forecaster – Utah covers
StatFox Power Line – Utah by 13
Outplay Factor – Utah by 6

Latest College Football News

Click here to read latest College Football news