CFL: CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown

CFL: CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown



CFL: CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown


2010-07-14

The first two weeks of the 2010 Canadian Football League season have been dominated by underdogs, as three of the four favorites in each week not only failed to cover the pointspread, but lost outright as well. Another four games are on tap for this weekend. Let's take a quick look at the lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com, and the key betting info for each contest.
Wednesday, 7/14/2010
(411) CALGARY at (412) TORONTO 7:30 PM
Line: Calgary by 6, Total: 48.5
Toronto was one of the surprise underdog winners of Week 2, upsetting Winnipeg 36-34, despite being outgained by a whopping 513-321 margin. In two games, the Argonauts have already allowed 1,013 yards of offense to their opponents. Fortunately, for this early week Wednesday contest, they'll have the benefit of playing in front of the home folks for the first time this season. They'll also have an extra day of rest over Calgary, with the Stampeders having played just this past Saturday.
Speaking of surprises, Calgary has to be considered a mild one at this point, one of two 2-0 teams in the CFL and leading the league in points allowed at 19.0 PPG. The Stampeders' most recent win was a 23-22 decision at Hamilton, as they pulled the upset as 2-1/2 point dogs.
This will be the second meeting in three weeks between Calgary and Toronto, with Calgary having won the season opener at home 30-16. Here the Stampeders will be looking for a 7th straight win over the Argonauts (5-1 ATS). Toronto has had all kinds of trouble penetrating Calgary's defense, averaging just 12.5 PPG during the skid.
Friday, 7/16/2010
(413) WINNIPEG at (414) HAMILTON 7:00 PM
Line: Hamilton by 3.5, Total: 54
Winnipeg is averaging a scintillating 41.5 PPG and 507.5 YPG on offense in its first two contests but unfortunately has just one win to show for it. New quarterback Buck Pierce has been everything head coach Paul LaPolice could ask for in his first two games with the team. Still, the Blue Bombers are stinging from the late loss to Toronto last week, a game in which they were favored by 10-1/2 points. In this divisional tilt, that upset loss leads to a powerful FoxSheets system for Friday's tilt:
• Play On - Any team (WINNIPEG) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*)
Hamilton is one of two teams still in search of a first win and has to be concerned that it gave up 502 yards of offense to Pierce and Winnipeg in the season opener. This sets up a nice revenge spot of the Ti-Cats, perhaps negating the earlier system:
• HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAMILTON 28.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Including the 49-29 win two weeks ago at home, Winnipeg is on a 5-2 SU & ATS run in the head-to-head series with Hamilton and the last three games have sailed over the posted total. The StatFox Power Line indicates that Hamilton should be favored by 6 points in this one.
(415) MONTREAL at (416) BRITISH COLUMBIA 10:00 PM
Line: TBD
Montreal and British Columbia hook up for a battle of 1-1 teams Friday night in Vancouver. The Alouettes are expected to be a small favorite when the line gets released. Oddsmakers are awaiting the status of Lions' QB Casey Printers, who left last Saturday's loss to Saskatchewan with an injury. He is listed as questionable so there's a good chance he will be able to go.
This will be the first time these teams have met since Montreal hammered B.C. 56-19 in the West Division Final last November. Still, that rout aside, this has been a very close series over the years. In fact, for as good as Montreal was in 2009, the Lions handed the Alouettes one of their three regular season losses last year and swept both meetings against the pointspread.
B.C.'s rushing attack has been the best in the CFL thus far this season in terms of average gain, 8.3 yards per attempt. At the same time, Montreal is allowing a league worst 7.8 yards per rush. In fact, the Alouettes are the league's worst defense in several categories, including points allowed, yards passing and yards per pass attempt. That is a scary proposition for a team expected to be playing as a road favorite.
Saturday, 7/17/2010
(417) EDMONTON at (418) SASKATCHEWAN 4:00 PM
Line: Saskatchewan by 7, Total: 56
Saskatchewan is arguably the league's best team right now, and they'll play their second home game of the season in NFL Network's Game of the Week on Saturday afternoon. The Roughriders are 2-0 on the season, having scored 91 points. Quarterback Darian Durant is arguably the league MVP after the first two games, as he leads a balanced offensive attack gaining a phenomenal 9.1 yards per play, including 9.9 per pass. The hot start is nothing new for the Roughriders:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.3, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is the league's biggest disappointment to date having lost both of its games by double-digits. The Eskimos are actually outgaining opponents by 45 YPG but have turned the ball over five times while only forcing one turnover defensively.
This game boasts the highest total of the week, 56 points, but even still, most trends seem to be pointing to a shootout, including…
• SASKATCHEWAN is 73-42 OVER (+26.8 Units) in home games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.3, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 1*)

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